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Commodities: Ever feel like you've been here before?

It's a bit like the movie, Groundhog Day, in the commodities and trading report for pizza these days, with the same trends that started about a month ago happening all over again.

March 27, 2017 by S.A. Whitehead — Food Editor, Net World Media Group

It's a bit like the movie,Groundhog Day, in the commodities and trading report for pizza restaurateurs and investors these days. The same trends that started about a month ago — for both the price of industry staples and the value of industry stocks — seem to be happening all over again. 

Cheese
Cheese prices are continuing to show some slight upward momentum, closing trading last Wednesday at $1.44, up 4 cents from the previous Wednesday, but still well below what the essential pizza topping went for at the beginning of the  year. 

Wheat:

Compared to last week, wheat was again lower. Wheat supplies in the U.S. remain at their highest in decades, but this year's crop ratings for winter wheat in the southwestern Plains were lower than a year ago. Most short-term trends are pointing down with most futures spreads suggesting a bearish commercial outlook. Weekly export sales for wheat were listed at 20.9 mb (568,300 mt) with 15.4 mb (418,500 mt) for the 2016-2017 marketing year. 

Kansas City U.S. No. 1 Hard Red Winter, ordinary protein rail bid was 34 to 45 cents lower from $4.33 to $4.73 per bushel. Kansas City U.S. No. 2 Soft Red winter rail bid was not quoted. St. Louis truck U.S. No. 2 Soft Red Winter terminal bid was 9 to 15 cents lower, from $4.01 to $4.22 per bushel.

Minneapolis and Duluth U.S. No. 1 Dark Northern Spring, 14.0 to 14.5 percent protein rail, was 12 1/4 to 32 1/4 cents lower from $6.25 3/4 to $6.35 3/4 per bushel. Portland U.S. Soft White wheat rail was 5 to 15 cents lower from $4.41 to $4.66 per bushel.

Gasoline and diesel fuel
Gas prices are still holding relatively steady, as they have for the last few weeks. The price of a gallon of regular this morning was $2.29, the same as both last week and last month, but still about a quarter higher than last year. 

Other grades followed suit, with mid-grade at $3.57 and Premium at $2.81, up less than a cent from last month for both, but again around a quarter more than this time last year. Finally, diesel was at $2.50 this morning, down slightly from last month, but again, a good 40 cents higher than last year when we paid $2.10 a gallon. 

Natural gas

Natural gas spot price movements were mixed this report week (Wednesday, March 15 to Wednesday, March 22), but they fell sharply in the Northeast. The Henry Hub spot price fell slightly from $3.00/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.98/MMBtu on March 23. 

Last report week, the eastern half of the country was affected by unseasonably cold temperatures and a late-winter snowstorm, pushing up prices in the Northeast and Midwest. As temperatures moderated during the current report week, prices generally fell. At the Chicago Citygate, prices decreased 4 cents from $2.93/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.89/MMBtu on March 22. At the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), the April 2017 contract price rose 3 cents, from $2.981/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.011/MMBtu yesterday.

Net withdrawals from working gas totaled 150 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ending March 17. Working natural gas stocks are 2,092 Bcf, which is 16 percent less than the year-ago level but 15 percent greater than the five-year (2012–16) average for this week. According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Friday, March 17, the natural gas rig count increased by 6 to 157. The number of oil-directed rigs rose by 14 to 631. The total rig count increased by 21, and it now stands at 789.

The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, fell by 33 cents, averaging $5.88/MMBtu for the week ending March 22. The prices of ethane, propane, butane, and isobutane fell by 5, 8, 7 and 6 percent, respectively. 

Pizza company stocks
A bit of a trend is setting in on the value of pizza stocks monitored by this website, beginning with Domino's again losing value over the course of the trading week, from $183.69 on March 17 to $182.95 last Friday at the close of trading. Yum Brands followed the same trend, losing 49 cents of its value between last Friday when it closed at $63.58 and the previous day a week earlier when it closed at $64.07. 

But both Papa John's and Papa Murphy's again took a separate escalator up to higher values over the last week. Papa John's, for instance, closed Friday at $76.43, up $1.28 from the previous week's close. Meanwhile, take-and-bake chain, Papa Murphy's continued to grow in value from $4.04 on March 17 to $4.18 last Friday.

About S.A. Whitehead

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Pizza Marketplace and QSRweb editor Shelly Whitehead is a former newspaper and TV reporter with an affinity for telling stories about the people and innovative thinking behind great brands.