Operations

Watching pizza's next wave of growth

From Texas to Tennessee and other fast-growing Sun Belt markets, pizza operators are targeting communities where people, businesses and new development are arriving — offering a glimpse at where the next generation of pizza growth could take shape.

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September 4, 2026 by Valerie Gritton

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For pizza chains looking for their next growth opportunity, the map is changing.

Population growth, new housing, economic development and expanding retail corridors are creating new pockets of demand across the Southwest, Southeast and West. And increasingly, pizza brands aren't simply entering those markets one restaurant at a time. They're using franchise development to build density around emerging population centers.

RestaurantData.com tracked 9,541 restaurant opening and development records across the U.S. from January through June, in its "U.S. Restaurant Opening Cross-Tab Analysis: January-June 2026 Semi-Annual Report," providing a snapshot of where restaurant operators put their growth dollars in the first half of 2026.

The Southwest, Southeast and West accounted for 76.9% of all tracked activity, with Houston leading all city markets with 265 records. Los Angeles, New York, San Antonio, San Francisco, Dallas, Austin, San Diego, Miami and Brooklyn rounded out the top 10.

For pizza operators, the significance isn't simply that these regions are seeing more restaurant development. It's that many of the same markets are experiencing population gains, new residential construction and commercial development — creating the right conditions for pizza brands to establish new customer bases.

The strategy is bigger than opening a restaurant

Mountain Mike's Pizza provides a good example of how that strategy is evolving.

The California-based chain entered 2026 with more than 100 locations in development across 16 states and a goal of opening 25 new restaurants during the year. And its growth strategy extends well beyond its traditional Western footprint.

The important part isn't simply the number of restaurants.

It's where and how the chain is developing them.

Mountain Mike's has been using franchise development to build its presence in markets that offer room for multiple locations. Something that allows the brand to establish a foothold, build awareness and create density within a broader trade area.

The approach is increasingly relevant as pizza brands move into fast-growing states and secondary markets.

The Sun Belt

RestaurantData's first-half numbers point directly toward the markets attracting that attention.

Shopping centers and mixed-use developments accounted for 6,205 records, or 65% of all tracked restaurant activity. Free-standing buildings represented another 2,051 records, or 21.5%.

For pizza chains, that development pattern can be particularly attractive.

A new mixed-use project can bring apartments, offices, retail and restaurants into the same trade area. A growing suburban corridor can add thousands of households over several years. A new commercial center can create the traffic and visibility needed to support a restaurant.

Those aren't just real estate opportunities. They're potential building blocks for a pizza market.

Mountain Mike's expansion illustrates that thinking. The chain has continued adding locations in Texas while also moving into new markets, giving franchisees an opportunity to enter growing communities while creating additional opportunities for the brand to build market density over time.

Texas remains a major pizza battleground

Texas illustrates why population growth should matter to pizza operators.

The state recorded 357 restaurant development filings in the first half of 2026, according to RestaurantData, representing 30% of the national total. Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston-Galveston and the Austin/San Antonio corridor accounted for much of that activity.

But Texas also demonstrates why operators can't equate growth with guaranteed success.

RestaurantData estimates that Texas experienced approximately 1,039 restaurant closures during the first half of the year, the highest total of any state. Houston led the city-level closure rankings with an estimated 119 closures.

In other words, growth doesn't automatically equal success.

For pizza chains, entering a growing market still requires the right trade area, real estate, franchisee, operating model and competitive position.

That's where market density becomes important.

A franchisee opening one restaurant in a growing market has a different opportunity from a development group that can secure several sites across a growing suburban corridor.

The same dynamics are playing out across the Southeast.

States such as South Carolina and North Carolina continue to attract new residents, while Tennessee and Georgia are becoming increasingly important growth markets for restaurant chains.

Your Pie, for example, is targeting Georgia, Tennessee and South Carolina as part of its expansion strategy, with Atlanta and the Chattanooga-Knoxville-Nashville corridor among its areas of opportunity.

South Carolina led the nation in population growth in 2025 at 1.5%, followed by Idaho at 1.4%, North Carolina at 1.3%, Texas at 1.2% and Utah at 1%, according to a March 2026 analysis from the National Restaurant Association.

For pizza operators, the opportunity isn't necessarily to wait until those markets become fully established. The bigger opportunity may be getting into growing communities while new housing, retail and employment centers are still being developed.

The U.S. pizza market has long been dominated by established population centers and traditional pizza strongholds.

But the next phase of growth may look different.

RestaurantData's first-half development numbers show where the broader restaurant industry is investing. Pizza chains offer a more specific lesson: The opportunity isn't simply to find a market with people.

It's to find a market where people are arriving, households are forming, businesses are opening and new communities are being built — and then develop enough restaurants to grow with them.

For pizza operators planning the next stage of expansion, that may be the most important shift on the map.

Included In This Story

Mountain Mike's Pizza

Pizza the Way It Oughta Be!

For over 45 years, Mountain Mike’s Pizza, a leading family-style pizza chain known for its legendary crispy, curly pepperonis and Mountain-sized pizzas, has been quietly building one of the largest regional pizza franchises in the West. Today we're developing coast-to-coast with 300+ restaurants, and we're primed for explosive growth nationwide

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